It seems that British politics has a new obsession: trying to make our leaders look normal.
Andy Burnham didn't unveil his flagship housing policy from a podium. He did it in a vertical video on one of his own social channels, complete with a ladder being pulled away. John Healey posed for an interview with The Sunday Times next to a bottle of HP Sauce on a Number 11 coaster. He also took up valuable column inches telling us he carries a spare in his bag "for emergencies".
Somewhere in Whitehall, a comms adviser is presumably delighted, thinking to themselves: doesn't all this staging make them look just like us?
Maybe I am in the minority, but I don't care which condiment a Chancellor puts on his breakfast. I want to know whether he is overseeing a financial framework that is in the best interests of the country.
Does he know what happens to the UK's debt costs if inflation stays higher for longer? And does he have a plan to reduce the impact on the public if the macro climate continues to look challenging?
The numbers behind the sauce
Borrowing hit £18.3bn in August: £2.9bn more than a year ago and £3.5bn above the OBR's forecast. Debt interest alone was £8.8bn, the highest August figure since comparable records began in 1997. Meanwhile the commitments keep growing: infrastructure, regional investment and, as announced on Saturday, a new equity loan scheme paid for by "reprioritising existing government budgets", with no further details...
The counterargument
Voters do want leaders who seem human, and trust matters when you're asking people to accept hard choices. The difference is what happens when it's tested. In 2022, gilts didn't care how Liz Truss came across. They cared whether £45bn of unfunded tax cuts added up. They didn't. Within a few weeks, Truss was out.
The psychology: relatability works on voters because of the halo effect. We like someone, so we assume they're competent. Bond markets price the plan, not the personality.
The Comms Read: In my view, relatability works when people know there is substance behind the messenger. Put it first, a month before a Budget, and you invite the obvious question: what's in the numbers that you'd rather we didn't look at? The same applies to a CEO whose LinkedIn page is full of personality, but whose company guidance keeps slipping. Markets, and eventually voters, reward a leader who hits their targets over a charming one who doesn't.
What to watch: the Budget on 28 October. Specifically, how the "Your First Home" scheme is going to be paid for, how much fiscal headroom is going to be maintained and how UK debt reacts on the day. There are three hard choices: raise taxes or cut spending, borrow more or squeeze investment, fund today's subsidies or keep back some headroom for what the future has in store.
There are no social media filters for a Budget. A credible plan is much harder to deliver than waxing lyrical about a fondness for brown sauce.
The week ahead... Who's reporting
Tuesday 29 September
Carnival (Q3): Summer is the quarter that matters most for cruise lines, so this may tell us about the US consumer and their appetite for spending on luxury travel into next year.
Micron (Q4): The AI trade bellwether. Memory prices have been booming. Great for Micron. Less good for anyone hoping inflation cools.
Wednesday 30 September
Greggs (Q3 update): First-half sales rose 7.2% to £1.1bn, and full-year forecasts are for around £2.3bn of revenue and £193m of operating profit. It's also one of the most shorted stocks in London, so an upside surprise could send it skywards.
Accenture: Important as a read on whether companies are actually spending on AI consultancy or just talking about it.
Friday 2 October
JD Wetherspoon (FY results): Revenue is expected at about £2.2bn, but pre-tax profit is forecast to fall to around £65m from £82m. Tim Martin has never been shy about sharing his views with the Chancellor, and this year he gets his platform four weeks before a Budget.
I will be keenly watching Greggs, due to the mammoth short position, and the house builders on Monday, their first day of trading since the Your First Home launch.
GLA & DYOR.
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