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James Lea
James Lea
Rotation or reset... The end of the AI momentum trade?

Oct 18, 2026

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6 min read

Rotation or reset... The end of the AI momentum trade?

The Nasdaq just had its worst week since June while the FTSE 100 had its best in six months. Every major AI sell-off of the past two years has been bought. But this time, the problem may not be demand for AI. It may be the cost of financing it.

James Lea
James Lea
(2/2) The bank tax gamble... The bill is coming. Who actually pays it?

Oct 17, 2026

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6 min read

(2/2) The bank tax gamble... The bill is coming. Who actually pays it?

Part 2 of 2. In Part 1 on Thursday I suggested the path of least resistance was a modest rise in the bank surcharge. Within hours, Bloomberg reported that is broadly what the Chancellor is planning. So, what would this action actually do to lending, bank shares and the Treasury's coffers?

James Lea
James Lea
Sold out, sold off... TSMC and ASML can't make enough chips. So why did chip stocks crash this week?

Oct 16, 2026

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6 min read

Sold out, sold off... TSMC and ASML can't make enough chips. So why did chip stocks crash this week?

This week the two companies at the bottom of the AI supply chain said demand will outstrip supply into 2028. Markets responded with a global chip rout and record costs to insure against AI credit defaults. The problem isn't the makers of the picks and shovels, it's the people borrowing to buy them.

James Lea
James Lea
(1/2) The bank tax gamble: windfall for the Treasury, bill for borrowers?

Oct 15, 2026

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6 min read

(1/2) The bank tax gamble: windfall for the Treasury, bill for borrowers?

Part 1 of 2. Two weeks before the Budget, Britain's banks face the prospect of another tax raid. But what exactly would the Treasury be taxing: lucky profits, the reward for prudent risk management, or income created by the BoE's own policy?

James Lea
James Lea
ASML: priced for miracles

Oct 14, 2026

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5 min read

ASML: priced for miracles

Record sales, record margins, demand visibility stretching to 2030 and a reported 10% price increase locked-in. The shares rallied, but at roughly 58× earnings, the real question is how much is already in the price.

James Lea
James Lea
Two turnarounds, one question: is the good news real?

Oct 14, 2026

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5 min read

Two turnarounds, one question: is the good news real?

BP says its reset is working; America’s banks say the consumer is holding up. Both have the numbers, but the question is whether they hold when the tailwinds fade.

James Lea
James Lea
Broadcom's boss called it a casino. Tomorrow, ASML shows us its hand.

Oct 13, 2026

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4 min read

Broadcom's boss called it a casino. Tomorrow, ASML shows us its hand.

Hock Tan suggests some investors have "no clue" what they are buying. ASML's Q3 Results tomorrow should give us some insights.

James Lea
James Lea
Pot, kettle, diesel... DJT blames Zelensky for an energy crisis that began in Iran

Oct 11, 2026

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5 min read

Pot, kettle, diesel... DJT blames Zelensky for an energy crisis that began in Iran

The US president says Ukraine is causing "problems for the world" by hitting Russian refineries. The fuel crisis he's trying to fix before the midterms started somewhere else.

James Lea
James Lea
(2/2) Capital Gains Tax: who pays, who waits and who leaves?

Oct 10, 2026

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7 min read

(2/2) Capital Gains Tax: who pays, who waits and who leaves?

We looked at what a CGT rise could look like. Now comes the harder question: what would it actually do to tax receipts, markets and the people paying it?

James Lea
James Lea
Fewer Bottles, Fitness & Finest... What Tesco tells us about the British shopper

Oct 9, 2026

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5 min read

Fewer Bottles, Fitness & Finest... What Tesco tells us about the British shopper

Tesco rips on raised profit, but underneath, the British shopper is quietly changing what goes in the basket.

James Lea
James Lea
Somewhere in the universe... Someone must be paying for AI?

Oct 8, 2026

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5 min read

Somewhere in the universe... Someone must be paying for AI?

Porsche goes after the prancing horse & SpaceX wants to borrow $40bn to buy Nvidia chips.

James Lea
James Lea
(1/2) A Deep Dive on Capital Gains Tax

Oct 7, 2026

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8 min read

(1/2) A Deep Dive on Capital Gains Tax

Part 1 of 2. Three weeks before the Budget, the tax almost nobody pays is the one everybody is talking about. What would a rise look like and who would it hit?

James Lea
James Lea
TalkTalk rescued... Too big to fail?

Oct 6, 2026

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4 min read

TalkTalk rescued... Too big to fail?

When resilience and competition collide, Britain has shown which way it leans.

James Lea
James Lea
Everyone shops at Tesco... That's the risk.

Oct 4, 2026

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5 min read

Everyone shops at Tesco... That's the risk.

Britain's biggest supermarket is still growing, but how is the consumer holding up? We should get some clues when Tesco reports its Interims this week.

James Lea
James Lea
The last clip in the chamber... How many more rescues can markets afford?

Oct 3, 2026

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4 min read

The last clip in the chamber... How many more rescues can markets afford?

Diesel hits £2, the G7 raids its reserves, the Nasdaq hits a high on weak jobs & future governments may have to pay the price

James Lea
James Lea
6% gilts: the bond market is sending Westminster an invoice

Oct 2, 2026

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4 min read

6% gilts: the bond market is sending Westminster an invoice

Britain suffering from global repricing of money + Micron shows why even exceptional corporate results can still disappoint

James Lea
James Lea
Sausage rolls, memory chips and the bond market

Oct 1, 2026

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4 min read

Sausage rolls, memory chips and the bond market

Greggs beat the GLP-1 doom-mongers, Micron smashes it again & Treasuries keep selling off anyway.

James Lea
James Lea
The Lord of the (Delayed) Rings

Sep 30, 2026

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3 min read

The Lord of the (Delayed) Rings

Oura had 4-5x times more orders than shares. So why did it delay the IPO?

James Lea
James Lea
Christmas arrives early for house builders!

Sep 29, 2026

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3 min read

Christmas arrives early for house builders!

Pain for property shorts + Nvidia's record buyback + gold slides

James Lea
James Lea
Politicians and HP Sauce... Relatability is not a fiscal plan

Sep 28, 2026

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3 min read

Politicians and HP Sauce... Relatability is not a fiscal plan

I don't care what sauce the Chancellor puts on his bacon roll + The Week Ahead

James Lea
James Lea
Help to Buy 2.0 - treating the symptom, not the disease.

Sep 27, 2026

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4 min read

Help to Buy 2.0 - treating the symptom, not the disease.

A revival would be instant good news for housebuilders, but will it actually get Britain building?

James Lea
James Lea
The AI Jobpocalypse: Fact or Fiction?

Sep 26, 2026

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4 min read

The AI Jobpocalypse: Fact or Fiction?

Half a million jobs gone in 2026. Every company has a reason. The question: are they telling you the truth?

James Lea
James Lea
Bond markets in US, UK & Japan hit multi-decade highs... coincidence?

Sep 25, 2026

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4 min read

Bond markets in US, UK & Japan hit multi-decade highs... coincidence?

Brent back at $105, BoE talks hikes, GS earns $200m from Situational Awareness & Meta continues to rip.

James Lea
James Lea
Elizabeth Holmes & the Illusion of Control

Sep 24, 2026

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3 min read

Elizabeth Holmes & the Illusion of Control

Markets' "broad rally" meets reality!

James Lea
James Lea
The Breakout?

Sep 23, 2026

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5 min read

The Breakout?

Nasdaq Notches Record High + The Tech Engine

James Lea
James Lea

The Signal & The Story

Narrative-driven market commentary, without the jargon. Twice a week from James Lea, co-founder of CorpCast.

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