The Signal & The Story

Narrative-driven market commentary, without the jargon. Twice a week from James Lea, co-founder of CorpCast.

Latest

Rotation or reset... The end of the AI momentum trade?

Oct 18, 2026

The Nasdaq just had its worst week since June while the FTSE 100 had its best in six months. Every major AI sell-off of the past two years has been bought. But this time, the problem may not be demand for AI. It may be the cost of financing it.

(2/2) The bank tax gamble... The bill is coming. Who actually pays it?

Oct 17, 2026

Part 2 of 2. In Part 1 on Thursday I suggested the path of least resistance was a modest rise in the bank surcharge. Within hours, Bloomberg reported that is broadly what the Chancellor is planning. So, what would this action actually do to lending, bank shares and the Treasury's coffers?

Sold out, sold off... TSMC and ASML can't make enough chips. So why did chip stocks crash this week?

Oct 16, 2026

This week the two companies at the bottom of the AI supply chain said demand will outstrip supply into 2028. Markets responded with a global chip rout and record costs to insure against AI credit defaults. The problem isn't the makers of the picks and shovels, it's the people borrowing to buy them.

(1/2) The bank tax gamble: windfall for the Treasury, bill for borrowers?

Oct 15, 2026

Part 1 of 2. Two weeks before the Budget, Britain's banks face the prospect of another tax raid. But what exactly would the Treasury be taxing: lucky profits, the reward for prudent risk management, or income created by the BoE's own policy?

ASML: priced for miracles

Oct 14, 2026

Record sales, record margins, demand visibility stretching to 2030 and a reported 10% price increase locked-in. The shares rallied, but at roughly 58× earnings, the real question is how much is already in the price.